From Monopoly to Duopoly

Europe’s Strategic Blind Spot

Over the past few years, Western governments have spoken often about reducing dependence on China. But when you look at the actions being taken, a different picture appears.

In July, the U.S. Office of Strategic Capital received authority to deploy up to $100 billion. That single step makes the current situation clear:

Europe is not moving from dependency to independence.

It is moving from a Chinese monopoly to a US–China duopoly.

With no major European or UK critical-minerals projects being funded, no matching urgency, and no equivalent capital support, the realistic choice will not be “China or self-sufficiency.”

It will be China or the United States.

Unless Europe begins backing real projects — not only strategies and policy papers, but actual mines, refineries, and magnet facilities — it will remain outside the most important industrial build-out in decades.

This raises a straightforward question:

Do European policymakers believe that breaking the Chinese monopoly is enough, even though relying on a “peace dividend” last time left them strategically exposed?